Grammy guessing

Mimi may be emancipated at last, but will she be locked out of the top Grammy races?

With secret Grammy committees about to huddle for the first round of voting on this year's nominations, Mariah Carey and her comeback album, "The Emancipation of Mimi," are sure to be a major topics of discussion.

It's not that voters don't consider Carey Grammy-worthy. She was named best new artist in 1990, after all, and has received occasional nominations over the years.

But Carey has never nabbed any of the other top awards: album, record or song of the year.

Some uppity critics say that's because she's a pop tart, not a serious artist. Still, Mariah's had a serious impact on 2005, when her return to chart-topping form has been one of the industry's biggest stories.

Predicting nominees of the major Grammy match-ups is the hardest job around for devoted awards watchers. (One year ago, who even knew that Ray Charles and Norah Jones had a duet eligible for record of the year? Then the track ended up winning.)

The first round of voting is shrouded in mystery. Contenders for best album, record, song and new artist are chosen by a committee of 25 unnamed industry types, who pick the final five nominees in each category from a list of the top 20 vote-getters as decided by the recording academy's general membership.

The committee makes a point of trying to acknowledge a broad span of musical tastes. It also loves to throw in some highbrow surprises, like a White Stripes, a Diana Krall or a Radiohead.

So who will likely make the mix this year when nominees are unveiled on Dec. 8?

Some Grammy pundits believe Carey's "Mimi" will score one or two top bids; others say nay. The experts are also deeply divided over whether Coldplay, Paul McCartney, Neil Young or Gwen Stefani have shots at the top prizes.

Sizing up the contest for album of the year, Chris Willman of Entertainment Weekly says, "If I had to guess who the shoo-ins are, I'd say Mariah, U2 and Kanye West are as sure a bet as anything is in this life -- and maybe Coldplay. Then after that, I'd think Eminem, Springsteen, then possibly Gwen Stefani and longer shot Stevie Wonder."

Adds Dave Bauder of the Associated Press, "The album of the year race could be a fascinating test of how hip the Grammys really are. If they wanted, they could fill this race entirely with older folks -- the Rolling Stones, Paul McCartney, U2 or Stevie Wonder. I don't think that would be terribly wise and I don't think they'll do it.

"I could see a good diva competition in the record or song categories between Mariah Carey, Kelly Clarkson and Gwen Stefani -- maybe leaving room for Green Day or Coldplay to slip in."

Green Day is red hot right now, having recently won seven of eight races at the MTV Music Video Awards, including video of the year. Because of eligibility regulations, however, Green Day can't compete for album of the year at the upcoming Grammys. ("American Idiot" lost last year to Ray Charles' "Genius Loves Company," and the Bay Area punk rockers had to be satisfied with the consolation prize of best rock album.)

But Green Day is considered a slam-dunk to nab a bid for best record this year. For which song? That's the big question. "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" was their standout tune late last year, but it's a faint echo now and, considering that old songs seldom win, Green Day may be better off being hailed for "Wake Me Up When September Ends."